tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post1507957412176991423..comments2023-10-15T05:20:00.675-06:00Comments on Entropy Production: Photovoltaic UpdateRobert McLeodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05270962906437456350noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-2242219591026223632008-09-12T10:47:00.000-06:002008-09-12T10:47:00.000-06:00They probably don't want to deal with the sales an...They probably don't want to deal with the sales and warranty overhead that residential sales would incur. I'm sure its taking all of their focus to continue expanding their manufacturing operations as fast as possible.<BR/><BR/>They also might not want to let their competition gets their hands on their panels.Robert McLeodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05270962906437456350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-4998708375009526212008-09-11T09:58:00.000-06:002008-09-11T09:58:00.000-06:00Unfortunately there are no companies providing low...Unfortunately there are no companies providing low cost CdTe panels for residential use. For the life of me, I can not figure out why. First Solar says they will not do anything smaller than 4MW. Why doesn't someone buy 4MW of panels from them at $1.15/W and turn around and sell them for residential use?<BR/><BR/>It boggles the mind. If it's so much cheaper (by nearly 70%) then why are we even messing with silicon at all?<BR/><BR/>Incidentally, residential, and small to medium commercial is about $7-8/W, and half of that is the panel. The rest is installation labor, the rack and the inverter assembly. In otherwords, it's unlikely that residential solar will ever get any cheaper than $4/watt. So, it will never ever be a major player unless always subsidized.<BR/><BR/>That said, it's a subsidy that will pay for itself in full back to the economy and then some, unlike most subsidies.davershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07638092471702215525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-23087969451699983422008-07-09T08:00:00.000-06:002008-07-09T08:00:00.000-06:00but the bulk will have to come from solar-thermal,...<I>but the bulk will have to come from solar-thermal, coal-CCS, and nuclear. There is no other way around.</I><BR/><BR/>I used to believe that too, but looking at the developments going on right now, these industries each have serious issues. <BR/><BR/>Solar thermal, though growing really fast, is from a really small base. Exponential growth is plausible, but that small base puts it in the medium-long term development stage.<BR/><BR/>CCS is suffering from high cost, generally unproven technology, issues with sequestration (safety, or, rather, perceived safety - nimby issues) and a shortage of specialized knowledge and materials.<BR/><BR/>A bit similar for nukes. Same lack of specialized knowledge and materials, and industrial manufacturing is moribund. Public attitude is improving but still not very positive overall. The nuclear construction industries were globally comatized (although locally there's large succes) for many years and is understandably still a bit sleepy-headed. <BR/><BR/>I don't expect much growth from these three technologies in global primary energy needs for at least another 10 years. I'm a big fan of each of them though.Cyril Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17667288494374310919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-79253324595618872902008-05-24T07:32:00.000-06:002008-05-24T07:32:00.000-06:003GW with a 20% CF is really nothing.Worldwide, we ...3GW with a 20% CF is really nothing.<BR/>Worldwide, we need to have at least 1,000 GW of carbon-free baseload (CF>80%) by 2030 if we are going to make a dent in the CO2 concentration...<BR/>PV, geothermal and wind will play a role, but the bulk will have to come from solar-thermal, coal-CCS, and nuclear. There is no other way around.Krassen Dimitrovhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06462795325843234990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-36380379200635125462008-05-22T18:47:00.000-06:002008-05-22T18:47:00.000-06:00Could take a while. OTOH, silicon is also coming ...Could take a while. OTOH, silicon is also coming down in cost very fast - big producers like Sharp are being very aggressive about this, in order to maintain profits and market share.<BR/><BR/>Ultimately, of course, it depends on the subsidies. As long as Germany is paying around 40 euro cents per KWH, that's how it will be priced in Germany!<BR/><BR/>At some point, as volumes grow, Germany will have to drop the subsidy levels, and then the rest of the world will begin to reap the benefit of the economies of scale the Germans have paid for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-50515726366374201062008-05-22T12:08:00.000-06:002008-05-22T12:08:00.000-06:00Mmm... I don't think the price will drop that fast...Mmm... I don't think the price will drop that fast. The thin film sector isn't growing fast enough in comparison to conventional tech and it's still a small hunk.<BR/><BR/>First Solar claims they'll reach 1035MW production capacity per year in the 2nd quarter of 2009. World production will be around 6500-7200 MW at that time. Nanosolar is probably running around 400 MW a year now. It's not enough to knock any of the more expensive producers out of the race.Robert McLeodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05270962906437456350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13900197.post-26931339386218935782008-05-22T11:08:00.000-06:002008-05-22T11:08:00.000-06:00First Solar's quarterly report says that their cos...First Solar's quarterly report says that their cost is $1.12/Wp, and that it fell 12% from 1 year ago.<BR/><BR/>OTOH, I believe their efficiency is a bit below average, so Balance of System costs will be a little higher.<BR/><BR/>I should think that with continued growth and competition we could expect to see wholesale panels at $1.50/Wp in perhaps the next 3 years, and complete systems, installed, at $3/Wp, which would give us grid parity in Southern California and many other places.<BR/><BR/>Of course, with high subsidies we may just see very high growth rates, high prices and incredible profits - already we're seeing Chinese solar billionaires.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com